The Gills appalling away form in League One since Mark Stimson took control of the Gills in October 2007 has put the Club in great peril of being relegated again in May 2010. There is also the worry of current league form of no wins in 8 games and only one win in the last twelve.

Mark’s teams have only won twice away from Priestfield in League One and by my reckoning Gills require to equal this extremely poor record in the last eight away games of this season to avoid relegation.

The last Gills away victory in League One was over two years ago at Huddersfield on 12 January 2008 where they won 3-1. This abysmal failure to win or even pick up the odd draw point contributed greatly to our demise and subsequent relegation down to the basement League Two in May 2008.

This season back in League One after promotion, with a team sourced and selected by Mark himself, has the air of déjàvu about it.

As in 2007/2008 the Gills decent home form masked the real problem of not gaining points on the road. When the home form slipped, as it is doing this season, then so did the Gills down into the relegation mire.

With a possible 45 points on offer so far this season in away games the Gills have gained only a measly three which is definitely relegation form and it is hard to see anything but a drop into the abyss of League Two that is looming for Mark Stimson and his team.

Some people might say, possible Mark amongst them, that it is too early to talk about relegation with seventeen games still left and 51 points on offer.

However, with an accepted “safety” point target of 50 required to avoid relegation, coupled with the Gills current total of 29, it is not hard to see that the Gills are in a perilous position.

So by my reckoning the Gills require at least another 21 points minimum to stay in League One with just 17 games left in the campaign – nine at home and eight away.

Where are these 21 points going to come from?

Now my prediction skills are not special in any way and can obviously be challenged and/or debated but they do bring some life to the stark reality that Gills are up against it.

They will probably be arriving at Adams Park for the last game of the season against Wycombe requiring all three points, possibly their first away win of the season, to stay in the Division.

What is the evidence for this I hear you ask?

Well, let us examine the remaining Gills fixtures, make a prediction and try to see just where these 21 points are going to come from.

HOME x 9 games and 27 points on offer

Tranmere – PREDICTION 3 POINTS                 ACTUAL RESULT 0 POINTS

Gills surprisingly lost 4-2 up at Tranmere but Rovers home record is good although, away from home, they are in 16th position in the form league. I expect Gills to win this and gain some revenge.

Bristol Rovers – PREDICTION 3 POINTS          ACTUAL RESULT 3 POINTS

On a very cold rainy Saturday Gills lost to a pretty ordinary Rovers side 2-1 after equalizing but losing their way in a poor second half. Rovers have currently been enjoying terrible away form and therefore expect Gills to win.

Leyton Orient – PREDICTION 1 POINT                ACTUAL RESULT 1 POINT

This was the “late arrival” farce following traffic chaos around the Leyton ground and when the Gills did turn up on the pitch they didn’t compete and lost 3-1. The Orient have a reasonable away record currently and therefore a tight match is on the cards with a point apiece.

Huddersfield – PREDICTION 0 POINTS             ACTUAL RESULT 3 POINTS

The Gills were well beaten by a very competent Huddersfield side 2-1 at the Galpharm and they boast a good away record. Although “doubles” are rare they will prove a hard side to break down and the most Gills can expect from this encounter is a draw but fear the worse.

MK Dons – PREDICTION 1 POINT                       ACTUAL RESULT 1 POINT

The Gills lost 2-0 at MK Dons after putting up a decent performance but were ground down by a relentless attack. Dons can be unexpectedly beaten as shown by other teams this year but with 10th best current away form expect a hard fought encounter with a draw being a probable result.

Southend – PREDICTION 3 POINTS                 ACTUAL RESULT 3 POINTS

Gills lost disappointedly to a single goal at Roots Hall but Southend are not in the best of form away and therefore expect Gills to gain a valuable three points in their fight against relegation.

Brighton – PREDICTION I POINT                         ACTUAL RESULT 1 POINT

Thought the Gills might earn their first away win at Brighton but they ended up losing 1-0 to a team that has already lost nine times at home and is currently bottom of the home form table this season. In contrast Brighton’s away record is excellent and therefore this could be a very tight game with a point apiece the result of hard graft.

Leeds – PREDICTION 0 POINTS                       ACTUAL RESULT 3 POINTS

Gills were soundly beaten at Leeds 4-1 and with the Yorkshire team riding high in the League anything from this game at Priestfield should be considered a bonus.  A point would be fantastic but expect the worse.

Southampton – PREDICTION 1 POINT              ACTUAL RESULT 3 POINTS

Gills Lost 4-1 at Southampton who made it look like men against boys. When they visit Prestfield they could be in a position pushing for automatic promotion or at the very least play-offs. In these circumstances it sometimes brings the best out of the Gills and their own position could be serious so a draw is not out of the question.

PREDICTED POINTS AT HOME = 13              ACTUAL RESULT 18 POINTS

AWAY x 8 games and 24 points on offer

Yeovil – PREDICTION 1 POINT                            ACTUAL RESULT 1 POINT

Gills beat Yeovil by the single goal but the Glovers away record is not spectacular. At home they are definitely a different proposition and a draw would be a very good result for the Gills.

Carlisle – PREDICTION 0 POINTS                     ACTUAL RESULT 0 POINTS

Carlisle put up a rugged away performance when at Priestfield and the game ended in a dour 0-0 draw. They are a rough and tough outfit and the long trip up to their place will probably end in a defeat for the Gills.

Bottom of the table Stockport were soundly beaten at Gils 3-1 and although “doubles” are not common – but with Stockport’s home form being one of the worst in the League - expect Gills to win here for the first time on the road this season.

Charlton – PREDICTION 0 POINTS                                    ACTUAL 1 POINT

The Gils should have taken all three points against near neighbours Charlton when they played at Priestfield but the Addicks escaped with a point. Although Charlton have had a patchy period at home Gills will possibly lose this away encounter by the odd goal.

Oldham – PREDICTION 1 POINT                       ACTUAL RESULT 0 POINTS

Winning by the odd goal at home should give Gills some confidence when they visit Oldham especially with the northerner’s indifferent home form of late. Expect something here but Gills will have to be resolute in defence.

Millwall – PREDICTION 0 POINTS                     ACTUAL RESULT 0 POINTS

Gills soundly beat Millwall 2-0 at home but over the years they very rarely win on the Millwall grounds, either at Cold Blow Lane or the New Den. Millwall have a good home form record this season and it would be a big surprise if the Gills get anything from this game.

Norwich – PREDICTION 0 POINTS                    ACTUAL RESULT 0 POINTS

Norwich came to Priestfield in September and were fortunate in gaining a last minute equaliser and going away with a draw. They are in very good form both home and away and will be pressing for automatic promotion. There is nothing favourable here and expect Gills to come away empty handed.

Wycombe – PREDICTION 1 POINT

If the predictions above come true then the Gills would arrive at Adams Park, High Wycombe looking for all three points for survival. Wycombe will probably also be relegated themselves by then and will not be easy opponents to let all three points go. Their home form is one of the poorest in the league but if they are already down, with nothing to play for and pressure off, expect a hard fought game and very likely disappointment for the Gills. A draw here looks a likely result but that will send Gills back to League Two along with Wycombe and possibly Stockport plus Tranmere.

TOTAL PREDICTED POINTS AWAY = 6

CURRENT POINTS TOTAL IS 29 (6 February) + the PREDICTED 19

= A TOTAL OF 48 and CERTAIN RELEGATION

= THE POSSIBLE PARTING OF THE WAYS FOR STIMSON & GILLS

So, there you have it.

An overall prediction of relegation straight back to League Two for manager Mark Stimson and his Gills team. If this is the sorry state of affairs in May then the failure to win away and/or pick up points consistently will be the obvious reason.

Other reasons will be laid firmly at Mark Stimson’s door such as poor tactics, team selection, and an apparent lack of management ability to get the best out of players when it really mattered.

Still, as Mark has implied, he is not a Gills Supporter and there is no pressure on him. The real Gills supporters will be looking at another bleak and worrying season ahead in League Two but will there be a new Gills manager to lead them or will Mark stay and try for the “double” promotion?

The answer lies in the next 18 games and Chairman Paul Scally’s views on the performance of the team and management.

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Stockport – PREDICTION 3 POINTS                                   ACTUAL 1 POINT